Excerpts from the previous Scuttlebutt issue.

Hi Everyone,

Hi again, from the west coast of Florida!

First of all, I want to thank again, all of the volunteers that we have on the Net. Obviously, without you, we would not have a Net. It always amazes me that so there are so many on the Net every morning, ready to help. If you are not an active member on the Net and would like to be, let me or one of our officers know and we"ll try to fit you in. Also, it"s always good to have "standbys" available for Net Control, Relays, Weather Reporters and Fleet Captains. Vacations, cruises, trips, etc., can be a problem trying to keep a Waterway Net schedule. Even volunteering for one day a month can be a great help.

Since Dave, N4NVI is going cruising, he has relinquished his Weather Coordinator title. Earl, WD0ETL has volunteered to assume those duties in Dave"s absence. Thank you, Earl! (and thanks, Dave).

Reminder: Our annual picnic will be held at Wickham Park, Melbourne, FL on Sunday, November 15th. This is really a great event and an excellent chance to put "faces" to all those call signs you hear every morning! Please try to attend if you"re anywhere in the area. I"m hoping we"ll have a big turnout. Of course, our picnic will coincide with the SSCA"s Gam.

Hurricane season is upon us again! Let"s hope the predictions are correct and we have only a "normal" season this year. It still pays to plan ahead, just in case. I have some tips on our "Tech Corner" web page, and there are many web sites, including BoatUS, that have very good information on hurricane preparedness.

If you haven"t already, check out our new Discussion Board on our website. As stated there, anyone can read all the forums, topics, etc., but you do have to be registered in order to post a message, or reply to any.

See you at the picnic!

Bill. . .N4UMS, Commodore

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) and the Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch (TAFB) of the NWS are co-located on the campus of Florida International University just a few miles southwest of the Miami International Airport. This hurricane-resistant building was erected to prevent a repeat of the devastation from Hurricane Andrew in 1992 and was occupied by the NWS in 1995. The building was constructed to withstand a direct hit from a hurricane. Should there be a threat and they go into "lock-down" mode, they roll down steel doors to cover the few windows they have and nobody is allowed in or out.

Inside, the NHC occupies much less space than I would have imagined. Since there was no Tropical activity to speak of, that area was dark and noticeably quiet during my visit. When tropical weather is active this is no doubt a busy place. Four weather positions (four large desks) complete with monitors, can handle up to four active storms at one time. On one wall is a huge chart where hurricane tracks can be displayed.

The TAFB generates the familiar Offshore Waters Forecasts for the Southwest North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico four times each day. The new Branch Chief, Hugh Cobb, is assisted by four Leads and nine other Forecasters working shifts around the clock.

The Miami-South Florida Forecast Office is located in the space immediately adjacent to the TAFB and produces all warnings and forecasts for South Florida and the adjacent waters of the Atlantic Ocean, Gulf of Mexico and Lake Okeechobee. Here is where we get the Coastal Waters Forecast from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef "out to the Territorial Waters of the Bahamas (60nm)."

Knowing the relationship between the NHC, the TAFB and the South Florida Forecast Office should give us all a better understanding of the interaction that no doubt occurs during a land-falling tropical cyclone.

Now for the primary reason for my visit to the NHC, which was to see and operate the ham radio station, WX4NHC. It was my privilege to be invited by my host, Julio Ripoll, WD4R, the Assistant Amateur Radio Coordinator. My security clearance was prearranged for a very early arrival at the center and after a brief introduction to the rig I was given full run of the ham station. Julio had tuned the rig for me and made sure we were on the correct antenna. I commented that the radio, the FT990 looked very similar to my FT 1000 at home as did the MD-1 desk mic. The amp, a Yaesu FL7000, was set to give me about 800 watts at the antenna which is a trapped dipole, a sloper, the top being at 100 ft and bottom at 22 ft above the roof of the building. Nearly 2000 feet of coaxial cable connect the station to the various antennas mounted on a roof-top walkway.

I had already downloaded the weather for the morning net and was just waiting to get the latest buoy reports when I began to hear chatter on 7.268MHZ. Tom, K4WJC, in N Charleston was my first contact and he was "armchair copy."

When I finished reading the weather there were no fills required, so I took the opportunity to thank Julio and the NHC for allowing us to transmit our weather report from their station.

Julio took the mic as the net was winding down to thank us, as hams on vessels, for the weather reports that we submit. He also reminded us that the Hurricane Net operates on 14.325MHZ any time there is a threatening Tropical Storm system.

There had been requests for WX4NHC qsl cards. Julio offered those to anyone who had checked into the net. By sending a SASE to his QRZ.COM address he would return the cards from his home as there was frequently a delay when sent from the NHC address.

When Rick, W4GE closed the net, I was given the First Class tour, meeting many of the forecasters that thus far had only been names on the bottom of a page of text. Hugh Cobb spent some time with me going over the different weather presentations they have available. I met John Cangialosi who had put together the morning"s SWNA forecast. Scott Stripling, who recently transferred in from the San Juan office, showed me some buoy reports and the different presentations he uses to interpret offshore wave action.

Back at the Ham station, Julio went over his duties when the Hurricane Net is called. I learned that it"s not just the 20M frequency of 14.325MHZ that is utilized, but 40M on our net frequency of 7.268MHZ, which is their backup, and 80 M as well. Also other modes are used; VHF, UHF, EchoLink, IRPL, Internet Web Blogs and direct email. Any method that will get the much needed information from the affected area to the forecasters at the NHC.

I met briefly with Bill Read, the new director of the NHC. Bill came to Miami just last year after serving as Meteorologist in Charge (MIC) of the NWS Office in Houston, TX. He was interested in hearing about our club and thanked us for our weather gathering efforts. I think we are in good hands with Bill at the helm at the National Hurricane Center.

- Dave, N4NVI

The Waterway CW net continues to meet daily on a frequency of 7050 kHz at 0700 EST for about 45 minutes. We average about twenty check-ins daily. About half are WRCC members and the remaining are CW enthusiasts from around the USA and Canada. Our net is an informal net and no "traffic" is passed. Most members report their current weather or just a short message.

The CW mode remains a very active mode within amateur radio and our little net is just a small part of what HAMS are doing with CW these days. The removal of code from the licensing requirements has not diminished its utility and its popularity. I read recently that ARRL contest reports show record numbers of CW participants. In the area of public service and Amateur Radio Emergency Service, CW remains in wide use. For example the CW mode is the backbone of ARRL"s National Traffic System (an extensive network of formal nets established to provide for the passing of formal written traffic throughout the USA and Canada during a time of disaster). A large portion of these nets are CW nets. In my home state of Virginia there is a daily CW net on 80 meters for the purpose of passing traffic into and out of the state and a regional CW net to provide a link for traffic in and out of the state from and to the rest of the county and Canada.

If you are interested in improving your CW skills and want to provide a public service to your community, state and/or county, I highly recommend you look into participating in the CW portion of the National Traffic System. Visit the ARRL web site (www.arrl.org) or contact your ARRL section manager for times and frequencies in your area.

A bit of nautical CW Trivia: I wonder how many of our members know the meaning of the Waterway Radio Cruising Club Burgee design and how it relates to the CW mode?

Answer: I did not participate in the design of the burgee so I am not certain the original designers had this in mind, but this is how I look at it: The burgee design shows two semaphore flags, the Alpha flag and the Romeo flag. " AR " when sent as one character in Morse Code is a pro sign which means "OVER" inviting any station to transmit. So our burgee is asking for any and all hams to say hello.

With all the media stress about H1N1 (Swine Flu) I will share some ideas with you about the management of contagious diseases. This can involve huge discussions of prevention, accurate diagnosis, surveillance, quarantine methods, and possible choice of antibiotics! There isn"t space or time (or perhaps interest) to deal with each of these. I"ll focus on a little virology-bacteriology and then on the questionable role of antibiotics.

The whole subject hit me in the face last month when I reported for infirmary duty on board the Carnival Liberty. When we tied up in Roatan, my nurse told me to go out on the dock to meet with the local Public Health doctor. You see, I had arranged for a shipboard guest with a rather severe pneumonia to be picked up there by an air ambulance and transported to Weston Florida Cleveland Clinic. She was in her 70"s, had no fever, no headache, no real prostration, but she was anemic, had a lingering pneumonia, and a worrisome low blood oxygen level. She had been sick already when she came on board 5 days earlier!

I went out onto the dock and was confronted by the local doctor and his assistant, both wearing face masks. He asked me, "Have you tested your patient for Swine Flu?" He continued, "We have no swine flu on the island and we want none!"

I replied, "She has no swine flu but only a garden variety pneumonia with a low arterial oxygen." He insisted I go back on ship and do the "Swine Flu Test." Somewhat irritated, I complied!

Although there are not a great number of swine flu cases in the world, it is contagious. It is caused by a virus, and it is potentially serious. The spread may peter out, or it may come back in the fall more aggressively. We will see. Anyway, my patient had no swine flu, but I did the "QuickView"® test in compliance. It was negative. After preparing the three documents he demanded, he finally let my patient pass to the airport.

The office tests for swine flu and bird flu are readily available to doctors, but they are only 50% to 70% accurate when testing large groups of flu victims. See cdc.gov/flu/professionals/diagnosis/rapidlab.htm. I knew my word was actually far more accurate than the "Flu-Test" but the local doctor did not.

Now, back to my discussion. Bacteria are smaller than body cells. Viruses are even smaller than bacteria! Even viruses range from large to small. Viruses are small chains protein that can replicate like a tiny parasite nested in a body cell. Some are DNA and some are RNA. Traditionally they do not respond to antibiotics like bacteria, but thanks to research some drug companies have invented some drugs that do. They are called "antivirals." AIDS research has helped in this. For common flu the two most popular are oseltamavir (Tamiflu®) and zananivir. CDC says "no preference". An older one was amantadine. All of these must be given within the first 24-48 hours to be effective! Such early administration is hardly possible in most situations, as you might guess. The CDC has nearly two pages of advice on how to select which patients, and at what time these drugs might be helpful. You can read this, if you want, at the CDC web site.

Viruses usually can"t survive very long outside of the body. That"s why close body contact is usually required for transmission. Other viruses use vectors like flies and mosquitoes for transmission, flies for polio, and mosquitoes for dengue, West Nile, and yellow fever.

One of the exceptions is the "Noro virus" that causes intestinal diarrhea, like we see on cruise ships. It gets passed by things we touch. It does not usually come in the food or water. It can survive, and be infective, up to a month on unclean surfaces. That"s why we wipe down hand rails on our ships, etc. Other viruses are carried into us not only by droplets from cough or sneeze, but by our hands, such as cold viruses. Hence, frequent, very frequent, good hand washing is so important in stopping the spread of virus diseases to us.

Standard antibiotics really don"t touch viral diseases with rare exceptions, like a few viruses that cause some sore throats, "colds" and bronchitis. These are large clumps of viral protein, almost as large as bacteria. Here the so called "broad spectrum" (Biaxin, Declomycin, Ampicillin, etc.) antibiotics may be helpful. Selecting the right antibiotic is a mixture of knowledge, accurate diagnosis, art, and even just plain luck. This is because the biochemistry of these germs is "smart". They have a propensity to "learn" resistance to frequently used antibiotics, and challenge us to invent new ones. This is true for numerous bacteria like streptococcus, gonorrhea, E. coli, proteus and pseudomonas and even some of the viruses. Tamiflu® does not always work.

Vaccination can protect against some viruses. Examples are chicken pox, yellow fever, small pox and even cervical cancer, but the flu vaccine given out last winter against type A and B doesn"t protect against swine-flu.

I"m not sure if I have offered you life changing information, but I have tried to give you some facts so you may better comprehend the things you read and hear. If you have questions send me an e-mail. jimhir@bellsouth.net

- Jim, K4TCV, Fleet Surgeon

The following members or their families have received cards or flowers from the Sunshine Fund recently.

MARCH

Bill Marsh        K9SGH    Silent Key

MAY

Brit Chance     W2IBK    Hospitalized

Roger H. Jones     KK6PZ    Silent Key

The Sunshine fund is not funded through your dues, but is supported by donations collected over the year.

If you are aware of a club member in need of some Sunshine, please contact me via phone (correct in the roster), email (correct in the Roster), or sunshine@waterwayradio.net.

Please provide me with as much information as possible and a point of contact. This especially holds true if someone is in the hospital. When you receive flowers, please let me know, so I can confirm they were received.

I want to thank the members of the WRCC for your support.

Debbie Lerner, KD4GRR,
Sunshine Fund Chairman

Scientists predict that Solar Cycle 24 will peak in May 2013 with 90 sunspots per day on average. At the annual Space Weather Workshop held in Boulder, Colorado last month, an international panel of experts led by NOAA"s Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) predicted that Solar Cycle 24 will peak in May 2013 with 90 sunspots per day on average. If the prediction proves true, Solar Cycle 24 will be the weakest cycle since Solar Cycle 16 which peaked with 78 daily sunspots in 1928, and ninth weakest since the 1750s, when numbered cycles began.

The panel predicted that the lowest sunspot number between cycles -- the solar minimum -- occurred in December 2008, marking the end of Solar Cycle 23 and the start of Solar Cycle 24. If December"s prediction holds up, at 12 years and seven months Solar Cycle 23 will be the longest since 1823 and the third longest since 1755. Solar cycles span 11 years on average, from minimum to minimum.

An unusually long, deep lull in sunspots led the panel to revise its 2007 prediction that the next cycle of solar storms would start in March 2008 and peak in late 2011 or mid-2012. The persistence of a quiet Sun also led the panel to a consensus that Solar Cycle 24 will be what they called "moderately weak."

Although the peak is still four years away, a new active period of Earth-threatening solar storms will be the weakest since 1928. Despite the prediction, the scientists said that Earth is still vulnerable to a severe solar storm. Solar storms are eruptions of energy and matter that escape from the Sun and may head toward Earth, where even a weak storm can damage satellites and power grids, disrupting communications, the electric power supply and GPS. A single strong blast of "solar wind" can threaten national security, transportation, financial services and other essential functions.

The most common measure of a solar cycle"s intensity is the number of sunspots -- Earth-sized blotches on the Sun marking areas of heightened magnetic activity. The more sunspots there are, the more likely it is that solar storms will occur, but a major storm can occur at any time.

"As with hurricanes, whether a cycle is active or weak refers to the number of storms, but everyone needs to remember it only takes one powerful storm to cause huge problems," said NOAA scientist Doug Biesecker, who chaired the panel. "The strongest solar storm on record occurred in 1859 during another below-average cycle." The 1859 storm shorted out telegraph wires, causing fires in North America and Europe and sent readings of Earth"s magnetic field soaring, as well as produced northern lights so bright that people read newspapers by their light, he said.

Biesecker cited a recent report by the National Academy of Sciences that found if a storm that severe occurred today, it could cause $1-2 trillion in damages the first year and require four to 10 years for recovery, compared to the $80-125 billion of damage that resulted from Hurricane Katrina.

The Space Weather Prediction Center is part of the National Weather Service and is one of the nine National Centers for Environmental Prediction. It is the nation"s official source of space weather alerts, watches and warnings. SWPC provides real-time monitoring and forecasting of solar and geophysical events that impact satellites, power grids, communications, navigation and many other technological systems.

When we tell people we live aboard, they sometimes ask, "Do you keep a gun on board?" My answer is "no." Your answer might be different, or you could be thinking about it. Here are some things you might want to ponder. They are the thoughts which led me to where I am on this subject.

When it comes to knowledge and familiarity with firearms, I was, (in 1958), a Junior NRA 4 bar Sharpshooter with the 22 caliber rifle. I can speedily field strip and reassemble an M1 Garand in the dark. I"m not a bad shot with a Glock 45 at 30 feet. I have been inculcated with respect for firearms.

To my mind, none of the above has much to do with having a firearm on a boat. I have no experience trying to shoot accurately from an unstable platform (the boat) and more important, I have no training in how to decide whether to attempt to kill someone.

If you don"t think killing someone is what carrying a gun onboard is about you need to think about it some more. But read on.

No one who I"ve asked after hearing that they carry weapons aboard has ever been able to answer the following question: What happens after you"ve killed someone you believed to be a very real threat to your life? I assume that no one would think of killing anyone for any lesser reason. No one I"ve talked to seems to have thought that far.

I have a fertile imagination, primed to some degree by what I have read has happened to others in the Caribbean. I"m discussing the islands because this is where many of the cruisers who feel they need weapons aboard think they might need them. There"s enough going on in the western Caribbean right now to make that a plausible view.

To cut to the chase, let"s assume that you"ve shot someone in the territorial waters of some other country.

It seems unlikely that you could successfully sail away - not respond to the inquiries of the local government. No government is going to sit idly by when one of its citizens meets an untimely death at the hands of a foreigner - you.

What if the deceased turns out to be the son-in-law of the local Mayor? If you already know he isn"t, then you know him and this is no longer an arms-length affair - worse for you.

If the United States and its citizens are not currently in good odor with the local government (check on what Nafta did to their trade), you may find that your response to what you thought was a threat was inappropriate because the guy you assumed to be a miscreant was locally regarded as on his way to sainthood and was only trying to share his insights into the hereafter with you. It is important to remember that "the truth" of what happened may not turn out to be what you thought it was.

There will undoubtedly be a judicial proceeding. This is where "the truth" will be established. It will be held in their venue and run in accordance with their rules and your actions will be the focus of their prosecution. You are unlikely to be presumed innocent.

You will enjoy the comforts of their jail - possibly in the company of other folks who may have done what you did - possibly for different reasons.

The US Government is not going to leap into the fray. Written accounts of similar situations suggest a mostly "hands-off" approach. You will be "on your own." The local US presence may help you find a local attorney - to be paid for by you.

So here you are, incarcerated in the jail of a "lesser" government, accused of killing one of its citizens, about to go on trial in a very different legal environment with a real chance of spending a significant period in a really crummy place. Had you thought such a thing was possible? You must have thought that everyone would agree that the person you killed deserved it. That view is likely to prove naive.

And this is without getting into the issue of firepower. You may think that showing you are armed will do the job. You won"t even have to shoot anyone.

What are you going to do when the boat that has been menacing you draws up, you brandish your Mossberg Mariner 12 gauge with the slug shells and the guys on the other boat pull out their AK-47s? What did you think they"d have? The AK-47 - most bang for the buck the world over.

Giving the benefit of the doubt to the guys who think they should go to sea "with" rather than "without", it is probably true that having a gun will save the day in some specific circumstances. But it seems to me that there are many other circumstances where you could find yourself in much worse trouble than if you had left it home. At the very least, much more thought needs to be given to a decision to carry weapons aboard than the very basic notes so often addressed to the subject.

Good News! The Atlantic Intracoastal Waterway Association reports that $22.2 million from the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act found its way to the ACOE for dredging the ICW to 12 feet. This does NOT mean your favorite place to run aground will be dredged before you get there! For detailed information, visit our friends at AIWA — www.atlintracoastal.org.

At Last! A cruiser transiting Georgia on June 20 reported Hell Gate has been dredged to 12 feet low water!!

The Bridge of Lions will be closed to marine traffic periodically during the summer. The schedule of USCG approved closings is available at http://www.fdotbridgeoflions.com and on Page 15.

New Florida Anchoring Provision Is Now Law! An analysis of House Bill #1423 and other related information can be found at http://www.cruisersnet.net/western_florida/anchoring_rights/. The Bill is cruiser-friendly and clears up much of the controversy following the Marco Island litigation. Its main provisions include:

The term "live-aboard vessel" means only those boats used solely as a residence and not for navigation, or those subject to real property taxes. Thus, cruising boats are not subject to the restrictions placed upon live-aboards. Local governments are prohibited from regulating the anchoring of cruising boats except within the marked boundaries of a mooring field (subject to certain exceptions for protection of life and vessel safety).

Local governments may not enforce anchoring rules which make cruising boats subject to live-aboard restrictions (Take that, Miami Beach!).

Bucksport Marina & Restaurant (Mile 377) has re-opened under new management. They"re open 7 days a week and have gas and diesel. Cruisers have posted good reviews. Wonder if the sausage is still available?

The old Jewfish Creek bridge on Route 1 has been completely removed. Gone!

The regulations about the Florida Boat Use Tax have been amended. Used to be you were subject to the tax if your boat was in Florida more than 90 days; that has been increased to 180 days.

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